{"id":8318,"date":"2022-04-08T11:36:50","date_gmt":"2022-04-08T16:36:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/virtus.global\/electoral-process-situational-awareness-in-colombia-december\/"},"modified":"2022-05-25T22:15:48","modified_gmt":"2022-05-26T03:15:48","slug":"electoral-process-situational-awareness-in-colombia-december","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/virtus.global\/en\/electoral-process-situational-awareness-in-colombia-december\/","title":{"rendered":"Electoral Process Situational Awareness in Colombia December"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_spacing=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeIn”]\n

December 1 2021 to January 16 2022<\/h4>\n

Analysis of the milestones, issues and events highlighting the road map to elections.
\nPrepared by Virtus Global<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Pre-candidates

Pre-candidates Colombia 2022<\/p><\/div>\n

The list of presidential candidates was maintained between December 1, 2021, and January 16, 2022. However, the withdrawal of Juan Carlos Echeverry<\/strong> and Dilian Francisca Toro<\/strong> may be the first of other withdrawals, before the March consultations, as a natural result of campaign wear.<\/strong> On the other hand, Enrique Pe\u00f1alosa did not reach the threshold of required signatures. Still, he will continue in the electoral contest endorsed by Partido de la U. Additionally, Equipo Por Colombia assured that there would be no alliance with Oscar Iv\u00e1n Zuluaga, and Rodolfo Hern\u00e1ndez maintained his independent candidacy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GENERAL TRENDS<\/h4>\n
a. Voting intention- Candidate<\/h5>\n
\"Voting

Source: Yanhaas survey sample from November 30 to December 8, 2021<\/p><\/div>\n

The survey by the YanHaas firm, which collected information between November 10 andDecember 8, 2021, showed that Gustavo Petro led the intention to vote (25%), followed by the blankvote (18%).<\/p>\n

a. Voting intention- Coalitions<\/h5>\n

According to figures from the Guarumo and EcoAnal\u00edtica survey, carried out in early January, Pacto Hist\u00f3rico was the coalition with the most significant voting intention.
\nAdditionally, compared to the results of the internal consultations of the coalitions, the survey found that the candidates who would be elected:<\/p>\n

\"Pacto

Pacto Hist\u00f3rico<\/p><\/div>\n

\"Coalici\u00f3n

Coalici\u00f3n Centro Esperanza<\/p><\/div>\n

\"Equipo

Equipo por Colombia<\/p><\/div>\n

Source: Yarumo EcoAnal\u00edtica Survey. Sample from December 1 to December 5, 2021 <\/em><\/p>\n

a. Perception of the candidates<\/h5>\n

According to the December measurement of the Invamer survey, the candidates with the most favorable<\/strong> image were Gustavo Petro (34%), Juan Manuel Gal\u00e1n (32%), SergioFajardo (25%), Enrique Pe\u00f1alosa (18%) and Rodolfo Hern\u00e1ndez (17%).<\/p>\n

According to the same source, the candidates with the most negative image<\/strong> were Enrique Pe\u00f1alosa (55%), Gustavo Petro (44%), Oscar Iv\u00e1n Zuluaga (43%), Sergio Fajardo (32%), Roy Barreras (28%).<\/p>\n

In December, only two of the thirteen candidates had favorability over their unfavorability according to people polled.<\/p>\n

\"Favorability

Sources: Invamer survey. Sample from December 20, 2021 to January 3, 2022.<\/p><\/div>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_spacing=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeIn”]\n

\"Electoral

Electoral Process Milestones Colombia 2022<\/p><\/div>\n

STRATEGIC ISSUES OF POLITICAL AGENDA<\/h4>\n

Security<\/h5>\n

Related to insecurity in Colombia, Rodolfo Hern\u00e1ndez<\/strong> asserted that it is not the fault of Venezuelans but generated by “thieving politicians” who steal the public budget, and nothing happens to them. In contrast, those who steal a cell phone and a necklace get severe sentences.<\/p>\n

Regarding security in Colombia, Enrique Pe\u00f1alosa<\/strong> affirmed that it is the highest priority; therefore, citizens have the right to live without fear. We must seek to have more under house arrest with a bracelet to make spaces for other criminals. He also argued that the National Police should continue to be part of the Ministry of National Defense.<\/p>\n

Regarding the death of alias Roma\u00f1a and el Paisa in Venezuela, Gustavo Petro<\/strong> pointed out that it is still paradoxical that they, who resisted a very experienced Army like the Colombian for years in Colombia, died at the hands of an inexperienced Venezuelan Army.<\/p>\n

Fundaci\u00f3n Paz y Reconciliaci\u00f3n<\/strong> claimed that electoral violence had left 140 victims in Colombia,including 16 people killed, in 99 events since March 2020.<\/p>\n

Juan Gonz\u00e1lez<\/strong>, Special Assistant and Director of the National Security Council for the Western Hemisphere of the White House, stated that the US would carry out surveillance tasks during this electoral period in Colombia to avoid any influence from external actors in favor of one or several candidates.<\/p>\n

Economy<\/h5>\n

Related to the land property statute, Gustavo Petro<\/strong> pointed out that he is not planning to take the land away from people. However, he emphasized that the issue of fertile land that is not used must be worked to boost the country’s economy.<\/p>\n

Regarding the housing policy in a possible government, Gustavo Petro<\/strong>stated that he is interested in lowering the cost of housing in Colombia. For this, products found in international trade cheaper than in the nation would reduce the tariffs to zero.<\/p>\n

Regarding the housing policy in a possible government, Enrique Pe\u00f1alosa<\/strong>affirmed that there are more and more houses of 20 and 30 meters in housing projects. In Colombia, more single-person households prefer smaller but better-located places.<\/p>\n

Democracy<\/h5>\n

Alexander Vega,<\/strong> National Civil Registrar, stated that 700,000 IDs were withdrawn from the electoral census due to different irregularities. Nearly 290,000 documents belonged to deceased persons and 300,000 to foreigners.<\/p>\n

The National Civil Registry Office<\/strong> signed an agreement with the Organization of Ibero-AmericanStates (OEI) to guarantee transparency of the scrutiny software in the 2022 elections.<\/p>\n

The Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marta Luc\u00eda Ram\u00edrez<\/strong>, accompanied by the National Registrar, Alexander Vega, and the President of the National Electoral Council (NEC), Doris Ruth M\u00e9ndez, signed an agreement with the European Union Ambassador in Colombia, Gilles Bertrand, to allow an EU delegation to observe the electoral processes that will take placein the country during 2022.<\/p>\n

International Relations<\/h5>\n

Regarding the relations with Venezuela, \u00d3scar Iv\u00e1n Zuluaga<\/strong> highlighted the importance of opening the border not only for pedestrian traffic, as it currently applies. However, he added that there is no talking about re-establishing diplomatic relations. Regarding the Andean Pact, Gustavo Petro<\/strong> announced that if he wins the Presidency ofColombia, he will reset it with the support of the region’s leftist governments.<\/p>\n

Regarding Gustavo Petro’s meeting with the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sanchez, the Vice President and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Marta Luc\u00eda Ram\u00edrez<\/strong>, asked the Spanish Government to receive all the candidates for the presidency as they did with Petro.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_spacing=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeIn”]\n

CAMPAIGN TIMES<\/h4>\n

Between DEC 01 2O21 to JAN 16 2022, these were the main events that defined the route of Colombia’s 2022 presidential and legislative elections.<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The Members of Equipo Por Colombia, DilianFrancisca Toro<\/strong>, and Alejandro Char<\/strong> stated that they disagreed with the arrival of \u00d3scar Iv\u00e1n Zuluaga to this Coalition. However, David Bargu\u00edl <\/strong>asked to open the doors to Zuluaga.<\/li>\n
  • Partido Mira<\/strong> el partido del Equipo por Colombia.<\/li>\n
  • Gustavo Petro invited the Coalici\u00f3n de la Esperanza<\/strong> to work on a single unity proposal for the upcoming presidential elections. Sergio Fajardo rejected the proposal.<\/li>\n
  • Miguel Uribe Turbay<\/strong> will head the list in the Senate For Centro Democr\u00e1tico. However, key figures suchas Jennifer Arias, Jos\u00e9 Obdulio Gaviria, Mar\u00eda del Rosario Guerra, Ernesto Mac\u00edas and Paloma Valencia will not run.<\/li>\n
  • \u00c1lvaro Uribe V\u00e9lez<\/strong> insisted that it is unacceptable that in Centro Democr\u00e1tico, the discrepancies with the Duque Government lead to mistreating the President Of the Republic.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_spacing=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeIn”]\n

    HIGHLIGHTS DEC01 2021 – JAN16 2022<\/h4>\n

    1. In the analyzed period, there is a long list of candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. However, three coalitions are recognized:Pacto Hist\u00f3rico, Centro Esperanza y Equipo Por Colombia<\/strong>, the independent candidacy of Rodolfo Hern\u00e1ndez<\/strong> and the candidacy of \u00d3scar Iv\u00e1nZuluaga<\/strong> for Centro Democr\u00e1tico.<\/p>\n

    2. According to different surveys carried out, in this case, the Yanhaas survey, Gustavo Petro<\/strong> has been shown as the candidate with the best chance of being President. Secondly, the uncertainty among Colombians when choosing a candidate continues to be representative. Finally, the rise of Rodolfo Hern\u00e1ndez in the polls has also been notorious.<\/p>\n

    3. According to the Invamer survey, only two of the thirteen candidates had favorability over their unfavorability to people polled in December.<\/p>\n

    4. Gustavo Petro<\/strong> continues to be the candidate with the most significant role and leadership in the public debate on the issues on the electoral agenda.<\/p>\n

    5. 2,853 candidates registered to participate in the Senate and House of Representatives elections. Ofthe 172 representatives in the House, 27 appear on the lists of different parties to the Senate.<\/p>\n

    6. The National Civil Registry Office<\/strong> released the official list of the 398 candidates who aspire to the 16 peace seats created in the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n

    7. Senator John Milton Rodr\u00edguez<\/strong> officially received the endorsement of Colombia Justa Libres despite the strong opposition of the president of that party, Senator Ricardo Arias.<\/p>\n

    8. Coalici\u00f3n de la Esperanza<\/strong> will present two lists for the Senate, as well as lists for the House of Representatives in most of the departments. Humberto De la Calle announced that he would lead one of these.<\/p>\n

    9. Polo Democr\u00e1tico Alternativo<\/strong> will maintain its status as a formally constituted political party capable of Representatives giving endorsements and joining the closed lists of Pacto Hist\u00f3rico.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_spacing=”default” centered_text=”true” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][nectar_btn size=”jumbo” open_new_tab=”true” button_style=”see-through-2″ hover_text_color_override=”#ffffff” icon_family=”none” text=”Download the report” url=”https:\/\/virtus.global\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Colombia-2022-Electoral-Process-Situational-Awareness-DEC0121JAN1622-General.pdf”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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