December 1 2021 to January 16 2022
Analysis of the milestones, issues and events highlighting the road map to elections.
Prepared by Virtus Global
Pre-candidates Colombia 2022
The list of presidential candidates was maintained between December 1, 2021, and January 16, 2022. However, the withdrawal of Juan Carlos Echeverry and Dilian Francisca Toro may be the first of other withdrawals, before the March consultations, as a natural result of campaign wear. On the other hand, Enrique Peñalosa did not reach the threshold of required signatures. Still, he will continue in the electoral contest endorsed by Partido de la U. Additionally, Equipo Por Colombia assured that there would be no alliance with Oscar Iván Zuluaga, and Rodolfo Hernández maintained his independent candidacy.
GENERAL TRENDS
a. Voting intention- Candidate
Source: Yanhaas survey sample from November 30 to December 8, 2021
The survey by the YanHaas firm, which collected information between November 10 andDecember 8, 2021, showed that Gustavo Petro led the intention to vote (25%), followed by the blankvote (18%).
a. Voting intention- Coalitions
According to figures from the Guarumo and EcoAnalítica survey, carried out in early January, Pacto Histórico was the coalition with the most significant voting intention.
Additionally, compared to the results of the internal consultations of the coalitions, the survey found that the candidates who would be elected:
Pacto Histórico
Coalición Centro Esperanza
Equipo por Colombia
Source: Yarumo EcoAnalítica Survey. Sample from December 1 to December 5, 2021
a. Perception of the candidates
According to the December measurement of the Invamer survey, the candidates with the most favorable image were Gustavo Petro (34%), Juan Manuel Galán (32%), SergioFajardo (25%), Enrique Peñalosa (18%) and Rodolfo Hernández (17%).
According to the same source, the candidates with the most negative image were Enrique Peñalosa (55%), Gustavo Petro (44%), Oscar Iván Zuluaga (43%), Sergio Fajardo (32%), Roy Barreras (28%).
In December, only two of the thirteen candidates had favorability over their unfavorability according to people polled.
Sources: Invamer survey. Sample from December 20, 2021 to January 3, 2022.
Electoral Process Milestones Colombia 2022
STRATEGIC ISSUES OF POLITICAL AGENDA
Security
Related to insecurity in Colombia, Rodolfo Hernández asserted that it is not the fault of Venezuelans but generated by “thieving politicians” who steal the public budget, and nothing happens to them. In contrast, those who steal a cell phone and a necklace get severe sentences.
Regarding security in Colombia, Enrique Peñalosa affirmed that it is the highest priority; therefore, citizens have the right to live without fear. We must seek to have more under house arrest with a bracelet to make spaces for other criminals. He also argued that the National Police should continue to be part of the Ministry of National Defense.
Regarding the death of alias Romaña and el Paisa in Venezuela, Gustavo Petro pointed out that it is still paradoxical that they, who resisted a very experienced Army like the Colombian for years in Colombia, died at the hands of an inexperienced Venezuelan Army.
Fundación Paz y Reconciliación claimed that electoral violence had left 140 victims in Colombia,including 16 people killed, in 99 events since March 2020.
Juan González, Special Assistant and Director of the National Security Council for the Western Hemisphere of the White House, stated that the US would carry out surveillance tasks during this electoral period in Colombia to avoid any influence from external actors in favor of one or several candidates.
Economy
Related to the land property statute, Gustavo Petro pointed out that he is not planning to take the land away from people. However, he emphasized that the issue of fertile land that is not used must be worked to boost the country’s economy.
Regarding the housing policy in a possible government, Gustavo Petrostated that he is interested in lowering the cost of housing in Colombia. For this, products found in international trade cheaper than in the nation would reduce the tariffs to zero.
Regarding the housing policy in a possible government, Enrique Peñalosaaffirmed that there are more and more houses of 20 and 30 meters in housing projects. In Colombia, more single-person households prefer smaller but better-located places.
Democracy
Alexander Vega, National Civil Registrar, stated that 700,000 IDs were withdrawn from the electoral census due to different irregularities. Nearly 290,000 documents belonged to deceased persons and 300,000 to foreigners.
The National Civil Registry Office signed an agreement with the Organization of Ibero-AmericanStates (OEI) to guarantee transparency of the scrutiny software in the 2022 elections.
The Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marta Lucía Ramírez, accompanied by the National Registrar, Alexander Vega, and the President of the National Electoral Council (NEC), Doris Ruth Méndez, signed an agreement with the European Union Ambassador in Colombia, Gilles Bertrand, to allow an EU delegation to observe the electoral processes that will take placein the country during 2022.
International Relations
Regarding the relations with Venezuela, Óscar Iván Zuluaga highlighted the importance of opening the border not only for pedestrian traffic, as it currently applies. However, he added that there is no talking about re-establishing diplomatic relations. Regarding the Andean Pact, Gustavo Petro announced that if he wins the Presidency ofColombia, he will reset it with the support of the region’s leftist governments.
Regarding Gustavo Petro’s meeting with the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sanchez, the Vice President and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Marta Lucía Ramírez, asked the Spanish Government to receive all the candidates for the presidency as they did with Petro.
CAMPAIGN TIMES
Between DEC 01 2O21 to JAN 16 2022, these were the main events that defined the route of Colombia’s 2022 presidential and legislative elections.
- The Members of Equipo Por Colombia, DilianFrancisca Toro, and Alejandro Char stated that they disagreed with the arrival of Óscar Iván Zuluaga to this Coalition. However, David Barguíl asked to open the doors to Zuluaga.
- Partido Mira el partido del Equipo por Colombia.
- Gustavo Petro invited the Coalición de la Esperanza to work on a single unity proposal for the upcoming presidential elections. Sergio Fajardo rejected the proposal.
- Miguel Uribe Turbay will head the list in the Senate For Centro Democrático. However, key figures suchas Jennifer Arias, José Obdulio Gaviria, María del Rosario Guerra, Ernesto Macías and Paloma Valencia will not run.
- Álvaro Uribe Vélez insisted that it is unacceptable that in Centro Democrático, the discrepancies with the Duque Government lead to mistreating the President Of the Republic.
HIGHLIGHTS DEC01 2021 – JAN16 2022
1. In the analyzed period, there is a long list of candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. However, three coalitions are recognized:Pacto Histórico, Centro Esperanza y Equipo Por Colombia, the independent candidacy of Rodolfo Hernández and the candidacy of Óscar IvánZuluaga for Centro Democrático.
2. According to different surveys carried out, in this case, the Yanhaas survey, Gustavo Petro has been shown as the candidate with the best chance of being President. Secondly, the uncertainty among Colombians when choosing a candidate continues to be representative. Finally, the rise of Rodolfo Hernández in the polls has also been notorious.
3. According to the Invamer survey, only two of the thirteen candidates had favorability over their unfavorability to people polled in December.
4. Gustavo Petro continues to be the candidate with the most significant role and leadership in the public debate on the issues on the electoral agenda.
5. 2,853 candidates registered to participate in the Senate and House of Representatives elections. Ofthe 172 representatives in the House, 27 appear on the lists of different parties to the Senate.
6. The National Civil Registry Office released the official list of the 398 candidates who aspire to the 16 peace seats created in the House of Representatives.
7. Senator John Milton Rodríguez officially received the endorsement of Colombia Justa Libres despite the strong opposition of the president of that party, Senator Ricardo Arias.
8. Coalición de la Esperanza will present two lists for the Senate, as well as lists for the House of Representatives in most of the departments. Humberto De la Calle announced that he would lead one of these.
9. Polo Democrático Alternativo will maintain its status as a formally constituted political party capable of Representatives giving endorsements and joining the closed lists of Pacto Histórico.
